We aren’t out of the woods yet on having frosts. Don’t rush the planting of flowers and vegetables that can’t handle frost, unless you want to plant again.
Now there may be an exception in far southern Lower Michigan, but most of us could still have a 32 degree temperature. The historical data shows it’s still 50 percent possible in the first week of May. The computer model data shows this weekend and possibly late next week could have another frost.
If you are a betting person, you probably wouldn’t put a lot of money down on a bet that has a 50 percent chance of going your way. It could go either way right? Well the map below shows the date that there is a 50 percent chance still of a 32 degree temperature.
Average date of the last 32 degree temperature in spring. (Source: Midwest Regional Climate Center)
The dark green areas of central and southern Lower Michigan still have a 50 percent chance of 32 degrees in the dates between May 1 and May 10. In other words, half of all years have a temperature drop to 32 degrees after May 10. The yellow areas around Ann Arbor and the Saginaw Bay are a little more protected from cold, with the 50 percent chance of 32 degrees after April 21 to April 30. The Detroit Metro area has a pronounced urban heat island, coupled with being far south in Michigan. The Detroit area’s 50 percent chance of 32 degrees passed on April 1 to April 10.
Now let’s look at what the computer models say about the next few weeks.
Both of the best models that forecast out seven days show the possibility of a frost Saturday morning.
Low temperature forecast for Saturday, May 1, 2021 from the European Model.
Low temperature forecast for Saturday, May 1, 2021 from the U.S. model called the GFS.
So don’t rush putting in the ground plants that can’t handle a frost. Tomatoes, peppers, eggplants, squash, any vine vegetable can’t handle frost. They are killed by frost.
It looks like we better wait until at least Saturday, and see what the forecast looks like then. While I don’t believe we necessarily always have to wait until Memorial Day weekend, mid-May is usually our safe-from-frost time across the southern half of Lower Michigan. There is even the look of a light frost pattern the following Thursday.
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April 27, 2021 at 08:56AM
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Sorry Michigan, we could still have two frosts - MLive.com
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