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Seth Walder
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John Gasaway
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ESPN Insider- ESPN Insider college basketball contributor
- First began covering college hoops in 2004
- Has written for Basketball Prospectus and the Wall Street Journal
Giant Killers is back for our 15th annual metrics-based forecast of big upsets in the NCAA tournament. As usual, we're analyzing each Giant vs. Killer game in the first round. (Quick reminder: A Giant Killer is any team that defeats an opponent seeded at least five lines higher in any round.)
Our statistical model yields an upset probability for each game based on both the BPI of each team and on the stylistic factors that have most often led to tournament upsets in the past.
As always, we've sorted our picks into four categories based on the likelihood of an upset: best bets, worth a long look, not completely ridiculous and, last and very likely least, stay away. Hopefully, the titles are self-explanatory.
Got that? Now, let's get to the good stuff. Here are the upsets in the making:
Jump to: East | West | South | Midwest
East Region
Best bet
No. 11 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 6 BYU Cougars
Upset chance: 41%
Mick Cronin's team definitely faltered down the stretch, losing the last four times it took the floor and drawing a pairing against Michigan State in the First Four for its troubles. But where the committee saw blemishes, the GK model sees at least a sliver of hope for UCLA.
The Bruins don't shoot many 3s, but they're quite accurate when they let those shots fly. This team converted nearly 38% of its tries from beyond the arc in Pac-12 play. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jules Bernard and David Singleton can all stretch a defense. If UCLA can navigate its way safely past Michigan State, this team could pose problems for a BYU defense that excels at forcing misses in the paint but rarely pressures opponents into turnovers.
Worth a long look
No. 12 Georgetown Hoyas vs. No. 5 Colorado Buffaloes
Upset chance: 28%
Which Georgetown team are we going to see? Will it be the group that went 7-9 in conference play or the indomitable squad that summoned the glories of Hoyas past in Madison Square Garden and won the Big East tournament?
For Georgetown's sake, it better be the latter. Colorado's very good, and this Giant isn't falling to just any team. Still, the model sees opportunities for a newly efficient offense that was particularly effective at getting second chances at the BET. Make no mistake, Dante Harris, Jamorko Pickett and Chudier Bile had themselves a tournament at the Garden. The Buffaloes better be ready.
No. 11 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 6 BYU Cougars
Upset chance: 23%
Look at these plucky "Killers" like Michigan State and UCLA beating the odds and going up against big, bad BYU. It's practically a "Hoosiers" sequel. No, seriously, the Spartans would have a decent shot against the Cougars should they manage to make their way past the Bruins in the First Four.
Tom Izzo's men collectively aren't the last word in accuracy when it comes to shooting from the field, but Joey Hauser does buck that trend, and teammate Malik Hall had a very impressive showing in a losing cause against Maryland in the Big Ten tournament. BYU was done no particular favors as a No. 6 seed getting the winner of a game between Michigan State and UCLA.
Not completely ridiculous
No. 14 Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. No. 3 Texas Longhorns
Upset chance: 13%
The Wildcats are perhaps one of the strongest teams the Southland has produced since the Brad Underwood-era Stephen F. Austin teams with Thomas Walkup. That strength on the part of Abilene Christian explains why a pairing against the Big 12 tournament champion shows up here as "not completely ridiculous," instead of "stay away."
Perhaps a 13% chance is still pretty slim, but if nothing else, Kolton Kohl will have the attention of the Longhorns. The 7-foot senior draws fouls almost as often as Kofi Cockburn, but in stark contrast to the Illinois star, he shoots 72% at the line.
Stay away
No. 13 UNC Greensboro Spartans vs. No. 4 Florida State Seminoles
Upset chance: 8%
Leonard Hamilton's Seminoles were bewildered into a whopping 36% turnover rate against Georgia Tech in their ACC title game loss. Maybe Wes Miller's feisty Spartans can do the same?
They better. Even the Yellow Jackets won by just five, and on the season, UNCG has not shot nearly as well as Florida State. One thing we know: FSU will have its hands full on both sides of the ball with the incomparable Isaiah Miller.
No. 15 Iona Gaels vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide
Upset chance: 4%
Be still every sportswriter's heart, Rick Pitino is back in the NCAA tournament, but the GK model forecasts his stay will be a short one. Isaiah Ross is an excellent scoring guard, but as a team, the Gaels turn the ball over frequently, and Alabama's tough enough on opponents that don't.
No. 16 Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers or No. 16 Texas Southern Tigers vs. No. 1 Michigan Wolverines
Upset chances: 3% or less
The Mountaineers rode 21 points from Damian Chong Qui to an upset win over Bryant in the NEC title game. Meanwhile, Michael Weathers excels at getting to the rim for TSU. It promises to be an entertaining First Four contest leading to a daunting challenge for the winner in the round of 64.
West Region
Best bet
No. 14 Colgate Raiders vs. No. 3 Arkansas Razorbacks
Upset chance: 35%
Look at Colgate now, given a 35% chance against an opponent that fairly sailed through the strong SEC over the back half of the conference season. All season long, the Raiders have inspired snickering with their amazingly high NET ranking. No, Matt Langel's team isn't a national top-10 power, but what it happens to be is the best team the Patriot League has produced in four years.
Jordan Burns, Jack Ferguson, Tucker Richardson and Nelly Cummings are all good 3-point shooters, and they'll be going against an Arkansas defense that has not done much in SEC play to chase shooters off the arc. It's a long shot, but the Raiders might just be able to turn all those NET jokes around and have the last laugh.
Worth a long look
No. 13 North Texas Mean Green vs. No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers
Upset chance: 22%
While not a "best bet," it's not hard to see how this could be a competitive contest -- at least when Purdue has the ball. In Big Ten play, the Boilermakers struggled to both take care of the ball and hit 3s. (Though, to be sure, Trevion Williams was being magnificent all the while in the paint.) That adds up to a team that can suffer scoring droughts.
Grant McCasland's team has been known to force those kinds of dry spells on opponents. The Mean Green prevailed against mighty Charles Bassey and Western Kentucky in overtime in the Conference USA title game because the Hilltoppers were held to 57 points in 65 possessions. Not to mention, Javion Hamlet is an excellent distributor in addition to his duties as the leading scorer. Matt Painter's men could be in for a test.
No. 11 Utah State Aggies vs. No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Upset chance: 22%
Let's not overthink this one. Chris Beard's team has a 78% chance of winning, yes, but the reason that number isn't a good deal higher is that the best player on the floor when these two teams meet is arguably going to be Neemias Queta. The 7-foot junior is one of the best rim defenders in the nation, customarily stays out of foul trouble and anchors the offense for the Aggies.
The Red Raiders have taken a step back on D since the glory days of 2019, but they do still force misses in the paint. It will be a strength-on-strength collision between Tech and USU, and the GK model gives Craig Smith's group a 1-in-5 chance.
Not completely ridiculous
No. 12 Winthrop Eagles vs. No. 5 Villanova Wildcats
Upset chance: 11%
This will of course be a popular 12-5 upset pick, but the Giant Killers model is considerably less enthusiastic about the possibilities for a Cinderella moment here. Certainly, part of that is the fact that we humans, with very good reason, think Villanova will really miss Collin Gillespie, who is done for the season due to a knee injury. In fact, the Wildcats have lost each of the two games they've played without the senior.
Then again, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Jermaine Samuels are pretty good in their own right, and Chandler Vaudrin and the Eagles will have to bring their A-game. At 23-1, Winthrop would have made a 68-team bracket based on strength of record (SOR) as an at-large. Predictive metrics, however, are less bullish on a team with a high turnover rate and so-so interior defense.
Stay away
No. 15 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes
Upset chance: 6%
If by some wild chance this game is close, don't count out Oral Roberts. Max Abmas and the Golden Eagles defeated South Dakota State and North Dakota State by a combined total of five points to earn the automatic bid at the Summit tournament. The GK model, however, does not see this next game as being close.
3:35
The South Region is revealed with Baylor, Ohio State, Arkansas and Purdue as the top seeds.
No. 16 Hartford Hawks vs. No. 1 Baylor Bears
Upset chance: 3%
The Hawks are making their first NCAA appearance in program history, and at 6-foot-4, Austin Williams is a jack-of-all-trades who hits his shots and crashes the defensive glass. Baylor is going to be one tall order for John Gallagher's group, but Hartford has already gone deeper into the postseason than any of its predecessors. Salute.
South Region
Best bet
N/A
Worth a long look
No. 12 UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. No. 5 Creighton Bluejays
Upset chance: 21%
The West is shaping up to be a chalky region, but if there's a first-round upset pick to be had, the Gauchos look like it. Extra so if you factor in recency bias -- something our model does not incorporate -- after Creighton was walloped in the Big East tournament final by Georgetown.
In terms of unadjusted net efficiency, UC Santa Barbara ranked ninth in the country. But as is often the case for smaller programs, the rub comes with the opponent adjustment, which dropped the Gauchos down to 54th. Still, even accounting for opponents and preseason priors, BPI rates the Gauchos as a top-100 team on both ends of the court.
To be frank, UC Santa Barbara could have ended up with a better matchup. The Bluejays rank 13th in BPI, meaning they're better than expected for an average No. 5 seed. And Creighton is the better shooting team, too.
Still, there's a real shot for the Gauchos -- at least large enough to have to think about picking them.
Not completely ridiculous
No. 11 Wichita State Shockers vs. No. 6 USC Trojans
Upset chance: 13%
There's a small outline of a Giant Killer in Wichita State, but not a fully formed one. The Shockers shoot 3s at a fairly high rate, but they don't shoot them that well. They play slow but not that slow. And their 2-point scoring really holds them back. Altogether, it's tough to get super excited about the Shockers' chances of shocking USC.
The Trojans aren't an ideal matchup, either. They rank 16th in BPI (better than expected for a No. 6 seed), work the offensive boards and play solid defense. They aren't a great shooting team, but in terms of 2-point field goal rate, they have a massive edge over the Shockers. A lot would have to go right for Wichita State to advance to the round of 32.
No. 11 Drake Bulldogs vs. No. 6 USC Trojans
Upset chance: 12%
BPI considered Wichita State the worst at-large team in the tournament, but our Giant Killers model slightly prefers the Shockers to the Bulldogs when it comes to facing the Trojans. A matchup between Drake and USC would be heavily reliant on 2-point field goals. as neither team shoots from beyond the arc much.
While the Bulldogs actually have converted 2-pointers at a higher rate than the Trojans this season, once opponent adjustments are factored in, USC looks a little more impressive. Add in that the Trojans have a wildly better defense, and an upset here looks awfully unlikely.
No. 13 Ohio Bobcats vs. No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers
Upset chance: 12%
Offensively, there is something there for the Bobcats. They rank 11th in 2-point field goal percentage, per KenPom, and overall had the 17th-best raw net efficiency. But as mentioned several times in this region: The opponent adjustments haunt you (if you play in a weaker conference, that is).
Ohio's 2-point offense actually looks like a weakness -- a non-trivial one -- in this game compared to Virginia once the ACC and MAC schedules are taken into account. The defensive difference is substantial, too.
Every Virginia fan knows the Cavaliers' slow and deliberate play can giveth and taketh, but it seems unlikely to cost them in this first round.
No. 14 Eastern Washington Eagles vs. No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks
Upset chance: 11%
Kansas is just the 19th-best team in the country going forward, BPI thinks, and therefore was a relatively appealing No. 3 seed to face (not quite as appealing as Texas, though). Unfortunately, Giant Killers does not believe Eastern Washington is a team likely to take advantage.
The Eagles are on the outside looking in of the top 100 teams in the country (No. 103 overall), per BPI. And though Eastern Washington really does have a shooting advantage, that small edge will likely be drowned out by the dominance of Kansas' defense.
Stay away
No. 15 Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. No. 2 Iowa Hawkeyes
Upset chance: 6%
Iowa is the fifth-best team and has the second-best offense in the tournament and a better chance to win the whole thing than No. 1 seed Michigan, BPI thinks. It would be shocking if a Hawkeyes team that hardly ever turns the ball over and connects on 3-pointers at a nice clip lost in round one.
No. 16 Norfolk St Spartans or No. 16 Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Upset chance: 3% or less
You don't have to pick Gonzaga to win the NCAA tournament. But they haven't lost all season ... that loss isn't coming to a No. 16 seed.
Midwest Region
Best bet
No. 11 Syracuse Orange over No. 6 San Diego State Aztecs
Upset chance: 39%
It'd be nice if the style of these two teams provided some indication that would lead our Giant Killers model to think Syracuse has a particularly strong chance of pulling off the first-round upset. But the truth is that the reason Syracuse's shot is so high is just because the Orange are just ... pretty good?
Compare Syracuse's BPI rank -- which is forward-looking and based on a combination of preseason prior and in-season performance -- of No. 33 to the other No. 11 seeds. UCLA is No. 42. Michigan State is No. 66. Heck, Wichita State is No. 97. BPI says Syracuse is just 2 points worse per game than the Aztecs.
Even if we threw out our preseason thoughts and only compare what these teams have done -- I don't suggest that, but still -- the net opponent-adjusted efficiencies of Syracuse and San Diego State are about 3.5 points off.
The Aztecs still have a better chance to win, sure. But there could easily be bracket value in Syracuse as one of the most likely upsets out there.
Worth a long look
No. 13 Liberty Flames over No. 4 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Upset chance: 26%
Compare these two offenses, and there's an awful lot to like here for an upset-seeker. Does Liberty have the better ...
2-point field goal percentage? Check.
3-point field goal percentage? Check.
Free throw shooting? Check.
Ball security? Check.
2:51
Liberty clinches the Atlantic Sun's automatic berth to the NCAA tournament because its opponent in the final, North Alabama, is ineligible to participate.
Even after adjusting for opponent, Liberty has the better offense, BPI believes. It's a real threat.
Of course, that ignores the other side of the ball, and Oklahoma's advantage on defense is much larger than Liberty's on offense. But still, an offensive edge in a 13-4 game? That's awfully tempting.
Not completely ridiculous
No. 14 Morehead State Eagles vs. No. 3 West Virginia Mountaineers
Upset chance: 12%
The Eagles have an advantage in 2-point scoring, but, eesh, they have a mountain to climb elsewhere.
While this isn't the Bob Huggins press defense of the days of yore, the Eagles have the highest turnover rate of any team in the tournament all on their own (per KenPom), and that doesn't feel like a great sign for an upset-hopeful. Overall, the Eagles have a below average offense -- not for the tournament, but for all of Division I -- that is estimated to be worth almost 10 points per game worse than West Virginia's. It's a long shot, at best.
No. 12 Oregon State Beavers vs. No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers
Upset chance: 11%
This matchup features two relatively slow-paced teams, but that's just about all Oregon State has going for it here. If there were some reason why Oregon State's offense might be primed for an upset, the model would see it.
Instead, it thinks the opposite. Giant Killers is even more bearish on the Beavers than the straight BPI comparison between these two teams. The Volunteers hold a substantial advantage in 2-point field goal percentage between two teams who aren't shooting from beyond the arc a ton.
Here's the thing: That's the good side of the ball for Oregon State. Tennessee has the third-best defense in the country, BPI thinks, compared to Oregon State's 123rd best. A lot of balls would have to bounce in the Beavers' direction for them to have much of a chance.
Stay away No. 16 Drexel Dragons vs. No. 1 Illinois Fighting Illini
Upset chance: 4%
Four percent is actually pretty strong for a No. 16 seed! But at the same time, there's no reason to blow your bracket up for a 1-in-25 shot (and it's really more than 1-in-28 if we didn't round up) at being right.
No. 15 Cleveland State Vikings vs. No. 2 Houston Cougars
Upset chance: 2%
Let's put it this way: Houston is more than seven times more likely to win the NCAA tournament than it is to lose in the first round. You can ink Houston into the second round right now.
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