Looking Back At Independence Day
It was a hot and sticky Saturday in the Twin Cities, even though the dew points did fall during the day from 71F at 8 AM to 61F at 5 PM. Highs climbed to 90F at MSP, the seventh 90F degree day of 2020. It was warm across the state, with the high even reaching 90F up in International Falls! The warmest location was Canby with a high of 94F.
We also saw severe weather across portions of northern Minnesota on the 4th of July, with a tornado reported west of Gatzke. There was also heavy rain reported, especially in the morning hours that lead to flash flooding. There were a couple of 4.50" rainfall reports - one near Stephen around 8 AM, and the other near Alvarado around 7:30 AM.
The heaviest rain reported at an airport Saturday in the state was up in Hallock where 1.02" fell.
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Heavy East Metro Rain Sunday Afternoon
A slow-moving storm popped up over the east metro Sunday afternoon, dumping heavy rain in areas like Maplewood and Oakdale. Radar indicated over 3" of rain in a three-hour period. This heavy rain led to a Flash Flood Warning that was in place through 6 PM (shown below).
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Warm Start To July
As we look at the start of July (and, technically, the last day of June in the above graphic), it definitely looks like summer has arrived here in the Twin Cities. Highs for the first four days of the month have been in the upper 80s and low 90s, with both Friday and Saturday recording a high of 90F.
Through the first four days of the month (this does NOT include Sunday), the average high in the Twin Cities was 80.5F. That is 7.3F degrees above average and the seventh warmest start to the month on record. Only the 3rd saw a low that was below 70F.
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Severe Weather Potential
As we go through Sunday Night, we will continue to watch the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms across central and northern Minnesota. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather in northwestern Minnesota. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat across both the Marginal and Slight Risk areas.
On Monday, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather is in place across a good portion of central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible from strong storms as a cold front moves through the state. Storms Monday could also be slowing-moving and produce heavy rain.
In many areas under the Marginal Risk area, the greatest severe threat will be from storms that pop in the afternoon and evening hours. Above shows the potential evolution of the storms from 7 AM Monday through 7 AM Tuesday (skipping every hour).
There will also be a Marginal Risk of severe storms across portions of northern Minnesota Tuesday into Tuesday Night. Right now it appears storms would be likely across this region Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning, with large hail the primary threat along with damaging winds.
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Drought Update
We did see drought expand across portions of the state this week in the latest drought update, particularly in portions of northeastern Minnesota. The amount of the state under Moderate Drought (D1 in the chart below) rose approximately 2% week-to-week, while the area under abnormally dry conditions (D0) fell by about 2.5%.
Drought Stats For Minnesota:
Last Weeks Drought Monitor:
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Rainfall So Far In 2020
The rainfall so far this year matches up fairly well with where the areas of abnormally dry/drought conditions are across the state. Above-average rain has fallen across portions of southeastern and northwestern Minnesota in 2020, with below-average rainfall stretching from southwest to northeastern portions of the state. While MSP sits at the 26th wettest start to the year on record with 17.33" of rain so far, St. Cloud has only received 8.32" and is at the 11th driest start to the year. Meanwhile, Duluth is still sitting at their 3rd driest start with only 6.22" of precipitation yet so far.
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July Somewhere Between Baking and Broiling
By Paul Douglas
I've pivoted from "how hot" jokes to useless, vaguely interesting trivia. A story at Everyday Health caught my eye. An average of 175 Americans perish from extreme heat every year. Women have more sweat glands, but men's sweat glands are more active, leading them to sweat more. People have about 4 million sweat glands. Lovely. Evaporation of sweat from your skin has a cooling effect. But when there's this much water in the air your body's natural HVAC system breaks down. Yeah, I'm fun at parties.
The approach of a meager cool front sets off a few T-storms later today. Think of cumulonimbus as nature's automatic thermostats. When it gets too hot and humid, storms bubble up, providing temporary cooling.
Spotty storms prowl Minnesota into Thursday, but we may dry out a little Friday into the weekend. After "cooling" into the 80s Tuesday, mid-90s return Wednesday, and right now I see more 90s than 80s the next 3 weeks.
Men will sweat. Women will glow. Dogs will pant and our lakes may experience a rush hour!
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
MONDAY: Muggy, few T-storms. Wake up 73. High 90. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.
TUESDAY: Slight relief, stray T-storm. Wake up 71. High 86. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 3-8 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Another hot slap. Late thunder? Wake up 73. High 93. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 15-30 mph.
THURSDAY: Slight risk of bumping into a storm. Wake up 72. High 89. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Sunnier, drier. Still plenty hot. Wake up 70. High 90. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
SATURDAY: Hot sunshine, stray late-day T-storm. Wake up 71. High 88. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
SUNDAY: Plenty of sunshine, lake-worthy. Wake up 68. High 87. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind E 5-10 mph.
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This Day in Weather History
July 6th
1936: A high of 104 degrees is recorded at Minneapolis
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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
July 6th
Average High: 84F (Record: 104F set in 1936)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 49F set in 1942)
Average Precipitation: 0.12" (Record: 2.83" set in 2015)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 6th
Sunrise: 5:33 AM
Sunset: 9:01 PM
*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 27 minutes and 41 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: ~1 minute and 5 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Daylight? July 23rd (14 hours, 59 minutes, and 56 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 6 AM?: August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset Before 9 PM?: July 10th (8:59 PM)
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Twin Cities And Minnesota Weather Outlook
We will be watching storm chances as we head through Monday. There looks to be two windows at the moment: the first in the morning hours, with another one as we head late into the afternoon and evening. As mentioned above, a few of the storms could be on the strong side. Temperatures start the morning in the mid-70s with highs climbing into the low 90s.
With dew points expected to be up around 70F throughout the day, it will definitely feel sticky and warmer out. Heat index values could reach into the mid-90s as we head into the afternoon hours.
As we look statewide, we will be watching shower and thunderstorm chances in many areas as a cold front tries to move through the state (eventually stalling out across southern Minnesota). A few rounds of storms will be possible, as noted above in the severe weather section. If you are trying to choose a location with the best chance of no storms on Monday, head to northwestern Minnesota. Highs will range from the 80s in central and northern Minnesota (with a few 70s along the North Shore) to the 90s across portions of southern Minnesota.
These highs will be above average across the state - mainly between about 3-8F degrees above average. The average high in the Twin Cities for July 6th is 84F.
Hot weather continues as we head through the work week, as highs will continue to be in the upper 80s and low 90s. Tuesday will be slightly cooler behind that cold front, but it surges back north as a warm front heading into Wednesday. Another cold front moves through Thursday, knocking temperatures a touch as we head through the end of the week and potentially next weekend.
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National Weather Forecast
On Monday, a system working into the Southeast will produce the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region. I'll have more on what could eventually happen with this system in a moment. A stationary front lingering from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley could produce showers and storms. A cold front attempting to move southeast across the Northern Plains will produce some stronger storms - this front will eventually stall out and lift back north later in the week. A few showers are possible in the Pacific Northwest.
Heavy rain will continue to be an issue across portions of the Deep South and Southeast through the beginning of the week, with over 3" possible in some locations. Some areas of the Northern Plains could also see 2-3"+ of rain due to rounds of storms.
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Atlantic Tropical Troubles
We are also tracking the tropics as we end this holiday weekend. On Saturday, Tropical Depression Five formed southwest of Bermuda and moved just north of the island Saturday night into Sunday morning. This system will continue to move northeast over the next couple of days, becoming post-tropical Monday. However, before it becomes post-tropical, it could become a Tropical Storm.
The National Hurricane Center is also keeping an eye on an area of low pressure across the northern Gulf Coast that has a 40% chance of forming into a tropical system in the next five days. Here is what the NHC had to say about the system at 2 PM ET:
Recent satellite and radar observations indicate that a small low pressure system has formed within a broader area of low pressure near the northern Gulf Coast. The low is producing a few showers near its center, and some slight development is possible before it moves inland early Monday. The broader low pressure system is forecast to move northeastward and could emerge offshore of the Carolinas later this week, where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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A ‘Viral’ New Bird Song in Canada Is Causing Sparrows to Change Their Tune
More from Gizmodo: "A new bird song is spreading like wildfire among Canadian white-throated sparrows, at a scale not seen before by scientists. Birds rarely change their chirpy little tunes, and when they do, it’s typically limited to the local environment, where slight song variants basically become regional dialects. New research published today in Current Biology describes an extraordinary exception to this rule, in which a novel song sung by white-throated sparrows is spreading across Canada at an unprecedented rate. What’s more, the new song appears to be replacing the pre-existing melody, which dates as far back as the 1960s."
A bright fireball over Tokyo explodes with the force of 165 tons of TNT
More from CNET: "The skies over Tokyo were lit up by an explosive extraterrestrial object early Thursday morning that also came with a sonic boom, according to some reports. Videos of the event show a spectacular light with green and purplish hues flying across the sky for just a few seconds at around 2:30 a.m. local time, before the light fizzles out. "I thought a person living (in the condo) above knocked down a shelf," one local said, according to the Japan Times."
Dry tropical forests may be more at risk than wet rainforests, study says
More from The Guardian: "Dry tropical forests are more vulnerable to the impacts of global heating than had been thought, according to new research, with wildlife and plants at severe risk of harm from human impacts. Some tropical forests are very wet, but others thrive in a drier climate and scientists had thought these drier forests would be better adapted to drought, and therefore more able to cope with the effects of the climate crisis. But a new study suggests the opposite may be true, and forests with an already drier climate show greater loss of biodiversity, and a reduced ability to support a wide variety of wildlife and plant species, when subjected to warmer temperatures. Wetter forests, with year-round rainfall, show less change in biodiversity."
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- D.J. Kayser
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A Few More Storms Monday - Still Hot And Muggy - Minneapolis Star Tribune
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