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Racing Insights: Kyle Larson still favorite despite potential Indy delays - NASCAR

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Editor’s note: Original projections have been updated after Saturday practice and qualifying.

After a wild All-Star Race Weekend that saw tempers flare and $1 million paid out to Joey Logano, the Cup Series regular season is back in full swing this weekend with a crown-jewel race on tap in the Queen City.

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The advance metrics once again have sights set on Kyle Larson to end up in Victory Lane, despite there being a chance he might not make it to the race because of delays in Indianapolis. Larson, of course, is attempting the Memorial Day double, which is a challenge unto itself, but if Larson makes it to race in Charlotte, he will be on a 1.5-mile track where he has dominated.

In 2021, when Larson won the Coca-Cola 600, he swept each stage and led 327 laps. He also has 21 stage wins on 1.5-mile tracks since ’21 and has the most top-five finishes in night races in the Next Gen era with seven.

Following Larson in the projections are Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. (up two spots since the original projection), 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick and Hendrick’s Chase Elliott.

William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, Christopher Bell and Ross Chastain round out the projected top 10.

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

TYLER REDDICK: Reddick has impressively finished in the top 10 in each of his four Coca-Cola 600 starts, giving him an average finish of 7.0 in NASCAR’s longest race and ranking second-best all-time among drivers with more than two starts. Reddick also has scored the second most points on 1.5-mile tracks (113) this season.

MARTIN TRUEX JR.: Truex has remained consistent all year. He currently sits second in the driver standings and is the only one without a trip to Victory Lane in the top six, but that could change soon. Truex has led the most laps in four of the last nine Coca-Cola 600s, including his remarkable 2016 win where he led 392 laps.

CHASE ELLIOTT: Elliott’s 9.85 average finish is currently the best in the Cup field. He already has an intermediate win this year at Texas. At Charlotte, he has finished top five in four of the last six oval races, including a pair of runner-up finishes in the last five events and Hendrick has won 12 Coca-Cola 600s.

CHRIS BUESCHER: The Buescher camp has suffered heartbreak in the last two points-paying races. Despite that, the No. 17 team has been hitting its stride and has been in contention to win in a handful of races this year. Charlotte could be the weekend they finally put it all together and get a breakthrough win.

KYLE BUSCH: It’s been an up-and-down year for Rowdy, but across the last seven Coca-Cola 600s, he’s finished sixth or better. His 1,061 laps led in the 600 ranks third best all-time. Not to mention Busch has 16 career wins on 1.5-mile tracks. Plus, two of Busch’s five top-10 finishes came on intermediates this year.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE COCA-COLA 600

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.

Finish Car Number Driver
1 5 Kyle Larson
2 11 Denny Hamlin
3 19 Martin Truex Jr.
4 45 Tyler Reddick
5 9 Chase Elliott
6 24 William Byron
7 12 Ryan Blaney
8 48 Alex Bowman
9 20 Christopher Bell
10 1 Ross Chastain
11 54 Ty Gibbs
12 8 Kyle Busch
13 6 Brad Keselowski
14 23 Bubba Wallace
15 14 Chase Briscoe
16 22 Joey Logano
17 10 Noah Gragson
18 99 Daniel Suárez
19 34 Michael McDowell
20 17 Chris Buescher
21 4 Josh Berry
22 3 Austin Dillon
23 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
24 43 Erik Jones
25 41 Ryan Preece
26 42 John Hunter Nemechek
27 51 Justin Haley
28 7 Corey LaJoie
29 77 Carson Hocevar
30 71 Zane Smith
31 2 Austin Cindric
32 21 Harrison Burton
33 38 Todd Gilliland
34 31 Daniel Hemric
35 84 Jimmie Johnson
36 15 Kaz Grala
37 16 Shane van Gisbergen
38 50 Ty Dillon
39 44 J.J. Yeley
40 66 BJ McLeod

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Racing Insights: Kyle Larson still favorite despite potential Indy delays - NASCAR
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