With the results from the weekend, the Green Bay Packers have some new obstacles to making the postseason, dropping from the No. 7 and final playoff spot in the NFC all the way to the No. 11 team. But that doesn't mean hope is dead, or even faint.
Here's what to know about the Packers' playoff chances:
Can the Packers still win the NFC North?
No, that ship has sailed after this weekend.
What's the probability the Packers make the playoffs at all?
The Packers' playoff chances are at roughly 25%, according to the New York Times simulator. And if the Packers win their final three games against Carolina, Minnesota and Chicago, they will still have a greater than 95% chance to make the playoffs.
What has to happen for the Packers to get a wild card?
Winning out would give them a great shot still, but here are some new issues that the Packers are dealing with:
- They've fallen a game behind the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints. The Packers have the tiebreaker against both teams but need Los Angeles and New Orleans to lose again to have a chance to finish ahead of them for a playoff spot.
- The Packers need Seattle to lose again, preferably against an NFC team or Pittsburgh. The Seahawks face the Philadelphia Eagles on "Monday Night Football" tonight.
- The Packers can beat Minnesota head-to-head but will need the Vikings also to lose one of their other two games against Detroit to finish ahead of the Vikings.
- The Packers are still tied with the Atlanta Falcons, a team that holds the tiebreaker over Green Bay. There's a chance the Packers could still bypass Atlanta in a three-way tiebreaker (like with the Saints), but they wouldn't mind the Falcons taking one more loss.
We know, we know, you're already rushing to the comments section to quote Jim Mora's incredulous "Playoffs?!" speech and pointing out that the Packers haven't played like a playoff team. But … they still have a better record than two of their final three opponents, and the third hasn't played well lately.
Let's say the Packers win the rest of their games. What would keep them out of the playoffs?
Green Bay, at 9-8, would still have a strong chance to make the playoffs. But it would still be out if two of the following things happen ...
- The Vikings sweep the Lions and finish the season 9-8. That would give the Vikings a tiebreaker edge over the Packers with a better conference record. That's crucial for three-way tiebreakers, too, because those identify the top team in each division first before determining a winner. In other words, if the Vikings, Saints and Packers were all tied for the last playoff spot, the Vikings would get the edge through this divisional tiebreaker and be compared to the Saints, with the Packers out of the mix. For what it's worth, the Vikings beat the Saints head-to-head, so the Vikings would get the spot.
- The Seahawks win the rest of their games or go 3-1 with the only loss to the Titans. In the latter scenario, Seattle would finish 9-8, have the same conference record as Green Bay and have the edge in record against common opponents. In the former scenario, Seattle will finish with a better record.
- The Rams win the rest of their games. That would be the only way for Los Angeles to finish ahead of the Packers. Green Bay holds the head-to-head tiebreaker.
- The Falcons win their final three games and don't win the South. Green Bay currently has the same record as the Falcons and doesn't have a head-to-head tiebreaker. But, Atlanta could also win the NFC South, which would take it out of a battle with Green Bay, though that also means Green Bay has to deal with the other two South teams. Really, Green Bay could just use Atlanta to lose once more.
- The Saints/Buccaneers loser still gets a playoff spot. Tampa Bay must lose twice more to finish behind the Packers now that the Bucs have a head-to-head tiebreaker, but the Bucs currently hold first place in the NFC South by a tiebreaker over the Saints. That puts New Orleans in the battle for a wild card with Green Bay. Though the Packers are a game behind the Saints, the Packers do have a head-to-head tiebreaker here. So if Tampa Bay keeps the South, that likely means a loss for New Orleans, which gives Green Bay the foothold again. Long story short: It's bad if New Orleans wins the South, because that leaves two teams battling for a playoff spot with the Packers that have a head-to-head tiebreaker over Green Bay.
The good news: These teams battling with Green Bay haven't been good enough to prove they can win the rest of their games. The bad news: Neither has Green Bay.
So what are the Packers cheering for next week?
First, Packers fans will want Philadelphia to beat Seattle on Monday night.
As for next week (Week 16), the Saints play the Rams, so one of those teams is taking a loss. The New York Times simulator doesn't forecast a dramatic difference in the probability of Green Bay making the playoffs in either scenario, so it's probably not worth stressing over, though it's slightly more favorable to see the Rams lose.
The Packers are otherwise cheering for:
- The Packers to beat the Panthers (otherwise, why are you reading this?)
- The Colts to beat the Falcons
- The Titans to beat the Seahawks
- The Lions to beat the Vikings
- The Jaguars to beat the Buccaneers
Green Bay doesn't need all of those outcomes to go the right way, but each one would help.
Will the Packers be eliminated next week with a loss?
No, if Green Bay loses to Carolina and everything above goes wrong, the New York Times still thinks the Packers have a 15-20% chance of making the playoffs if they win their final two games.
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December 18, 2023 at 10:11PM
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Can the Packers still make the playoffs after loss to Tampa Bay? - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
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