Strange as it seems the Patriots do indeed have a path but it's quite narrow and requires a good deal of help. The first order of business is obvious: win the remaining four games to go 10-6. While a 9-7 record wouldn't officially eliminate them, a loss would make things exceedingly more difficult.
So we'll stick with the Patriots finishing 10-6. Even if that's the case, plenty of help elsewhere is needed.
Through 13 weeks of action the 6-6 Patriots are on the outside looking in. For this exercise we'll assume Pittsburgh and Kansas City win their respective divisions. Each has 11 wins so regardless they can't fall behind the Patriots in the standings. Tennessee (8-4) and Indy (8-4) are locked in a tight battle for the AFC South title. Both have paths to the 11-win mark as well with the Titans facing Jacksonville, Detroit, Green Bay and Houston down the stretch while the Colts see Las Vegas, Houston, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville.
Assuming the Titans win the division (slightly easier road), the Colts join the Browns (9-3) and Dolphins (8-4) in the wild card mix. Baltimore (6-5, Tuesday night game at Dallas still pending) and the Raiders (7-5) are also contenders. That means the Patriots need to finish ahead of three of those five teams to earn one of the three wild card spots.
However, the Patriots tiebreaker situation is quite favorable with head-to-head wins over the Ravens, Raiders and two over the Dolphins (assuming the Pats win out). Plus the Patriots 8-4 conference mark would top the list among those teams. So finding a way to get the Ravens, Dolphins and Raiders to 10-6 appears to be the best path. (We're giving the Browns a spot with wins over the Jets and Giants enough to get to 11 wins).
Of the three Miami seems destined for some losses. The Dolphins face Kansas City, Vegas and Buffalo as well as the Patriots. We've assumed a loss to New England, so a loss to the Chiefs gets Miami to 10 wins at most. That's one.
The Raiders would have to win out to get to 11 wins and they face Indy, the Chargers, Miami and Denver. This one's a bit tougher because two of those games are against fellow contenders Miami and Indy, so one team has to win.
Things can change quickly, but when Indy and Vegas face off on Sunday a Colts win benefits New England more. That would mean the Raiders max out at 10-6, and the Patriots would have the tiebreaker edge. That's two.
The Ravens need to run the table to get to 11-5, and they have the schedule to do it. After Tuesday's tilt with Dallas, Baltimore sees Cleveland, Jacksonville, the Giants and Bengals. The Browns will be tough and the Giants are playing well, but if the Ravens can get their act together that's the easiest slate of the group.
Let's go back to the Colts. We assumed a win over the Raiders, but a loss would mean Indy would need to win out to get to 11. A loss at Pittsburgh would drop the Colts to the 10-win group, and the Patriots would have a better conference record as well.
Apologies for the popsicle headache I no doubt just induced. There are a lot a machinations still to be worked out, and four weeks is an eternity in the NFL. Assuming wins and losses regardless of opponent is dangerous business. A lot can change with one game, and it will.
But despite being two games behind multiple teams with just four to play, the Patriots are still alive.
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December 08, 2020 at 10:23PM
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Week 14 NFL Notes: Patriots Path Still In Play - Patriots.com
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