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In the end, a dispute resolution body needs to be accepted by both sides--UK courts, EU courts, WTO, or an entirely new one.
Each party obviously doesn't want to be subject to the other, so WTO or an entirely new one has to be set up.
Well, the WTO has not been a quick, effective and powerful arbiter in trade matters and an entirely new one is so far beyond the initial agreements and not possible to stand up within the first few critical years of the new relationship. The only way for this to be resolved would be for the seller meet the demands of the cistomer. I'll leave it to you to figure out who is the larger customer.
The fundamantal issue is that every agreement involves giving away sovereignty to achieve mutuality. And that miutuality allows the parties to live in agreement and have trade.
The UK is like one party in the divorce, insistent on the keys to the old housethat they moved out of so they can come and go as they wish even though they dont' live there any more, have complete freedom to use the facilities, while denying similar priviledges to the divorced spouse, and still be able to have a say in what is acceptable for the party they left to do.
That's the stage of the UK/EU negotiations.
It is obvious--leave doesn't ultimately mean leave in the sense of never interacting again (thinkof the kids), there still has to be some sort of relationship. But this is the stage that the divorce lawyers bring it to court or arbitration, because the leaving party doesn't want their life to be any different after they leave the marriage.
Serious horse-trading has to occur on a whole herd of issues. Fishing is a minor and faintly ludicrous one to hang up on--a small part of either's economy and the fish come and go through ill-defined and not-so-accpeted EEZ's. But there are far more serious issues like EU certifications that will need to be maintined in a third country, inspection precesses for goods and services, etc., customs, tariffs, shipping, trans-shipment from the EU (mainland) to UK to EU (Ireland) etc, etc.
The truth is, the only agreement that can be had at this point is a tolling ageement. But Johnson was the one that set the hard date and it would be embarrassing forhim to back down, so it probably won't happen.
The second truth is that the UK/EU will need to have on-going, intensive negotiations for the next decade to continue to create a new relationship (just like a divorce, eh?).
A crah will occur at the end of this month in the absence of a tolling agreement--there is not enough groundwork laid for the outline of a new relationship.
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December 13, 2020 at 09:30PM
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It's Still Too Early for a Post-Brexit Breakthrough - TheStreet
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