Some years many of the acting categories at the Oscars are unpredictable, like last year when Best Supporting Actress could’ve gone to Angela Bassett, Kerry Condon or Jamie Lee Curtis. This year, three of the four acting categories already seem locked up: Best Actor for Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”), Best Supporting Actor for Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”) and Best Supporting Actress for Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”). Thankfully, however, we do have suspense in Best Actress, with the final prize going to either Emma Stone for “Poor Things” or Lily Gladstone for “Killers of the Flower Moon.” Here are the five reasons why I think Stone will still win on Oscar night …
1.The film and her performance have been critical favorites since August.
“Poor Things,” directed by Yorgos Lanthimos, has been a critical and audience favorite since it premiered at the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals. The movie holds a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes at 351 reviews, with Stone’s performance especially singled out as the best of her career. Johnny Oleksinski in New York Post said, “This freaky fairy-tale world is really a playground for Stone, whose willingness to be foolish and risky is a breath of fresh air.” And David Fear in Rolling Stone wrote, “[Stone’s] performance displays the balance and dexterity of a chainsaw juggler.” Anyone who loves “Poor Things” loves that central Stone performance, and they’re going to vote for her to win the Oscar.
SEE 2024 Oscar nominations: Full list of contenders in all 23 categories
2. She has won at Golden Globes, Critics Choice and BAFTA.
Stone has done extremely well this awards season, being nominated everywhere, and winning all but one major televised precursor prize. First, she took the Golden Globe for Best Comedy Actress, while Gladstone claimed the prize on the Drama side. Then at Critics Choice, Stone beat Gladstone to win Best Actress. At BAFTA, Stone won the Best Actress prize while Gladstone wasn’t even nominated. Many predicted Sandra Hüller was going to win Best Actress at BAFTA for her performance in “Anatomy of a Fall,” but she still came up short to Stone, who looked like she was going to dominate throughout the rest of awards season. Even though Stone lost Best Actress at SAG to Gladstone, she’s won everything else she needed to.
3. “Poor Things” has more strength than “Killers of the Flower Moon.”
Something that helps Stone’s chances over Gladstone is that “Poor Things” has more strength overall going into Oscars night, with 11 nominations total and a genuine chance to win at least three other prizes. Although Best Production Design looks like the best possibility for “Poor Things” to win a prize at the Academy Awards, it could also win Best Makeup & Hairstyling and Best Costume Design. In addition, the movie made it into Best Adapted Screenplay, which “Killers of the Flower Moon” missed. And at BAFTA, “Poor Things” won five prizes total — Actress, Costume, Makeup & Hair, Production Design and Visual Effects—while “Killers of the Flower Moon” won zero. Basically the only category Martin Scorsese’s epic film has been competitive this season has been Best Actress, while “Poor Things” has been picking up trophies left and right in a variety of categories.
SEE Oscar nominations: How did your favorite films fare?
4. Best Actress winners at SAG don’t always win at the Oscars.
Many are pointing to Michelle Yeoh’s SAG win for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” last year as comparable to Gladstone being on her way to an Oscar victory. However, Yeoh’s film had been dominating in a variety of categories last season, including Picture and Director, which “Killers of the Flower Moon” isn’t. Furthermore, some SAG winners for Best Actress in recent years have not gone on to win the Academy Award, namely Viola Davis for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and Glenn Close for “The Wife.” Remember, Olivia Colman only won at the Golden Globes and BAFTA for “The Favourite” before beating Close for the Oscar in 2019. Stone has those two prizes as well as Critics Choice, so she still has a good chance at defeating Gladstone in the end.
5. She delivers the performance of the year.
Stone in “Poor Things” gives the most heralded performance of 2023, and despite her setback at SAG, I believe she is still going to win the Oscar for Best Actress, her second gold trophy in the category after “La La Land.” Although Gladstone is competitive here and would make for an historic win, look for Stone to take this one at the 96th Academy Awards.
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