• Russia's tactics in Avdiivka show it still can't pin down Ukraine's troops, analysts said.
  • Russia has repeatedly failed to encircle Ukraine's troops in its invasion, they said.
  • But Russia still looks set to take the town, with the White House blaming a lack of ammunition.

Russia's monthslong effort to capture a Ukrainian town shows it still hasn't learned how to successfully encircle Ukraine's troops, war analysts said.

Analysts at Washington DC-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War said in an update on Thursday that Russia's effort to capture Avdiivka "underscores the Russian military's inability to conduct a successful operational envelopment or encirclement in Ukraine."

Avdiivka, a town in eastern Ukraine, has been part of the fighting since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

It became a major hotspot after Russia began an offensive there in October 2023, leading to a grinding fight in which both sides, but especially Russia, have experienced major troop and equipment losses.

Russia has slowly made progress, and the White House warned on Thursday that Russia may take the city, blaming a lack of artillery ammunition caused in part by Republicans blocking more aid to Ukraine.

The ISW said in its update that Russian forces are "conducting a tactical turning movement" through the town which is likely to force Ukrainian troops to withdraw from their positions.

But Ukraine's forces have not fully withdrawn yet, it said, and are still preventing Russia "from making gains that are more significant than the current incremental Russian advances."

A bird's-eye view of the destroyed buildings of the city of Avdiivka on October 26, 2023 in Avdiivka, Ukraine.
A bird's-eye view of the destroyed buildings of the city of Avdiivka on October 26, 2023 in Avdiivka, Ukraine.
Kostya Liberov / Libkos via Getty Images

Russia conducting a turning movement shows how it has failed to encircle or envelop the town, just as it failed to do so in October 2023, the ISW said.

Encircling Avdiivka would mean Russia had completely surrounded Ukraine's forces and can then destroy them, while enveloping the town would mean destroying Ukraine's rear and stopping its troops from being able to withdraw.

"Russian forces have achieved neither in Avdiivka," the ISW said, adding that they have repeatedly failed to envelop or encircle Ukrainian forces throughout the war.

Despite these apparent failings, Russia still looks set to take the town.

But the ISW said taking Avdiivka would not result in any major strategic boost for Russia, given how heavily Ukraine has fortified nearby settlements.

It would, however, give Russia "immediate informational and political victories," it said.

The war in Ukraine has turned into a grinding conflict with little territory changing hands, but that could change if Western support for Ukraine drops.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Republicans blocking further aid to Ukraine is partly to blame.

"Because Congress has yet to pass the supplemental bill, we have not been able to provide Ukraine with the artillery shells that they desperately need to disrupt these Russian assaults," he said, adding: "The cost of inaction by the Congress is stark. And it's being born on the shoulders of Ukrainian soldiers."

A Ukrainian soldier who was hit by shrapnel while fighting in Avdiivka told the BBC this week: "It's difficult. The enemy has a lot of everything, of every type of equipment, while we have almost nothing."