Labor Market Still Stronger Than Economists Think: U.S. Added 263,000 New Jobs In November - Forbes

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Topline

Just days after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a slowdown in the central bank’s aggressive economic tightening campaign, the job market posted a vastly stronger-than-expected report for last month—signaling employment, which has remained one of the economy’s strongest pillars during the pandemic recovery, may still not be cooling quickly enough to help ease the nation’s stubbornly high inflation.

Key Facts

Total employment increased by 263,000 in November—significantly better than the 200,000 new jobs economists were expecting, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department.

The unemployment rate remained flat at 3.7%—coming in line with expectations as the number of unemployed people was essentially unchanged at 6 million despite waves of corporations slashing their workforce.

In emailed comments, Robert Schein, chief investment officer of Blanke Schein Wealth Management, said the strong data gives the Fed more reason to continue raising interest rates, which help cool inflation by slowing the economy—a signal investors worried about stock-market returns won't want to hear.

Stocks fell immediately after the report, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq plunging 2.2% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.1%.

Key Background

After losing more than 20 million jobs at the height of pandemic uncertainty in the spring of 2020, the labor market forcefully led the economic recovery and has remained strong despite some sectors taking a hit as the Fed raises interest rates. Fed officials have long pointed to the labor market’s strength as evidence that the economy can withstand additional rate hikes, but they started changing their tune last month. In a detailed summary of its early November meeting, the Fed revealed “a substantial majority" of officials believe a slowing in the pace of rate hikes will "likely soon be appropriate” as the economy shows signs of cooling, setting the stage for a half-point increase this month. Doubling down on Wednesday, Powell said, “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.” After the strong jobs data, any signs inflation is still hotter than expected could cast doubt on the Fed’s slowdown.

Crucial Quote

“Another strong jobs report reflects what’s plain to see in the economy: more than 10 million job openings and many industries, such as healthcare and education, are still working to fill out their ranks to minimum, prepandemic levels,” says Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, adding that industries such as leisure and hospitality also need to staff up to meet consumer demand. “We should expect at least a couple million more Americans back at work next year before the jobs market finally drops below 100,000 jobs added monthly."