The live music industry is expecting a record year, as shows return in force following pandemic shutdowns. But coronavirus cases, and related setbacks, are complicating plans.
Two years ago, Tokimonsta, an electronic producer and D.J., was gearing up to play the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival when the mega-event — along with virtually the entire concert business — was abruptly shut down by the pandemic. The pause gave her a much-needed break from touring, but then late last year her return to the stage was thwarted when she contracted Covid-19 on the road, despite being vaccinated, and had to cancel the remainder of her shows, again.
Now, Tokimonsta is back on the lineup for Coachella, which will return on Friday for its first run in three years, on a bill that includes the headliners Billie Eilish, Harry Styles and Swedish House Mafia with the Weeknd (taking the place of Kanye West, who withdrew last week). With its high-profile bookings and spring-break-in-the-desert vibe, Coachella, in Indio, Calif., has long been the symbolic opening of the touring season, but this year it is being closely watched as a bellwether for the multibillion-dollar touring industry, which is eager to return to full capacity.
“They’re kind of the groundhog for all the venues,” Tokimonsta said in a recent interview. “If Coachella is OK to go, then everyone is going to feel comfortable.”
The pandemic has made the last couple of years especially rough for the concert business, and for musicians, who often rely on touring as their largest source of income. After making a partial return last year, concerts are now roaring back, with industry predictions that, if all goes well, 2022 could eclipse 2019 as a record year for ticket sales.
But the excitement has been colored by a slight rise in coronavirus cases recently, and by concerns among many artists — expressed in abundance privately, and occasionally making their way onto social media — about the inherent dangers of touring when most local governments have dropped vaccination requirements for indoor venues, and mask usage among fans is spotty at best.
Every big gathering is still viewed as a potential superspreader event. After last month’s South by Southwest festival in Austin, Texas, for example, anecdotal claims of infections popped up on Twitter, though health officials said there were no signs that the event had caused a major spike. Some tours have been postponed or canceled, like one by the reggaeton star J Balvin, who said this week that the pandemic had “caused some unforeseen production challenges.” The indie-rock stalwarts Superchunk also postponed a tour this week, and noted in a tweet, “When the band are the only masked people in the venue, it’s clear that this stage of the pandemic is going to be around for awhile.”
But in general, the machine is moving forward at full throttle. Live Nation, the world’s largest concert company, is expecting a record year. By mid-March, executives have said, the company had already sold 50 million tickets for its concerts this year, about half its total for all of 2019. No-shows by fans, which had reached as high as 50 percent at some venues during the winter, have largely settled down to what promoters and talent agents say are typical levels.
“It feels like we’re much more back to a normal pace and cadence,” Omar Al-joulani, Live Nation’s co-president for touring, said in an interview this week, adding that as many as 40 tours are in the pipeline for next year and beyond.
One concern among artists and their agents is that too many tours may be hitting the road at once. That has led to problems like shortages of trucks, drivers and stagehands, as well as signs that the surfeit of superstar tours this year — Justin Bieber, Dua Lipa, Bad Bunny, Olivia Rodrigo and Elton John are among the many top acts on the road — may make it harder for lower-tier artists to sell their tickets.
“Given the increase in supply of shows and that consumers are being more selective, smaller events are not yet keeping pace with prepandemic numbers when looking at comparable shows,” said Jed Weitzman, the head of music at the ticketing company Logitix.
For many artists, the inconsistency of health protocols, and the easing of restrictions around the country, is a major worry. Last month, Sparks, the veteran art-pop duo of the brothers Ron and Russell Mael, politely but pointedly asked their fans to wear masks even if their local venue no longer required it.
In an interview, Sue Harris, the band’s manager, said the reason had to do with finances as well as health. Like most tours, it has no insurance if the artists need to cancel because of illness from Covid-19, and the loss of a few shows can mean the difference between profit and loss for entire run.
“It’s not a bottomless pit of funds for you to take that risk,” Harris said. “We turned to the fans. We need everyone to be on board for this.” Most fans, she said, have complied.
Berkeley Reinhold, a lawyer who represents artists and major concert promoters, said that insurance covering artists who can’t perform because of Covid-19 was “not commercially viable” for most acts, and that the pandemic has added new layers of negotiation over how costs and risks are divided between artists and the promoters that book them.
Coachella, which draws up to 125,000 attendees a day, announced in February that it would not require attendees to wear masks, take tests or be vaccinated. That has quietly become the norm, even after a number of festivals last year, like Lollapalooza in Chicago, pointed to policies requiring proof of vaccination, or of a negative test, as a key part of their safety regulations. Representatives of Goldenvoice, which presents Coachella in conjunction with AEG, a major promoter and venue owner, declined to comment.
Even among musicians, the pressure to stay on the road, no matter what, can be intense. Arthur Rizk, the guitarist of the metal band Eternal Champion, said that an unwritten “don’t ask, don’t tell” rule has developed among musicians on tour, pressuring them not to take coronavirus tests unless they feel sick.
Rizk said he rejected that view, and added that Eternal Champion has been scrupulously safe, with members wearing masks even during their rehearsals. Pressure over testing, he said, was just one more stressful factor in the world of touring in 2022, when, after two years of postponements, nothing feels certain.
“We’ve been offered some of the biggest gigs of our lives later on this year, and I can’t get excited about it,” Rizk said. “I don’t know if anything’s real at all. We’ve had shows postponed for almost three years now.”
With the majority of Americans vaccinated, few in the industry expect that anything like a full-scale shutdown of touring could happen again. And the official line among the major powers behind the touring business is that all signs point to a successful year that will finally let artists earn a living on the road.
“We’re extremely confident and ambitious,” said Kirk Sommer, co-head of the music division at the WME agency. But, he added, they are prepared for anything.
“We always have one eye open,” Sommer said. “You have to.”
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