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STILL 'BUY THE DIP'? (1201 GMT)
While markets are in a risk-off mood after a new and more threatening COVID-19 variant was detected in South Africa, some analysts are trying to soothe fears.
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“With equities at all-time highs, thin year-end liquidity and Covid cases up again, a pull-back seems logical,” Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays, says.
“We believe resilient growth and patient central banks should continue to provide cushion on a medium-term horizon, while investors have dry powder to buy dips,” he adds.
“What is key is to find out whether current vaccines remain effective against the variants, or not,” he argues.
But, as some analysts puts it, investors “shoot first and ask questions later" And the return of the "U.S. markets, mostly for a half-day session, is unlikely to change that narrative ahead of the weekend.”
The chart shows today's moves of the Stoxx 600 index (.STOXX).
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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NEW VARIANT: A BACKDOOR FOR STAGFLATION? (1148 GMT)
We've been rounding up comments on the market turmoil caused by the new variant and one crucial point made by Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya is that the policy response to a new crisis would be different or have a different impact than in March 2020.
The game changer is that back then, inflation was the least of policy makers' concerns, now, not so much so.
"The problem is that they can’t use the same tools to fight back inflation and the economic slowdown", Ozkardeskaya wrote.
Indeed, slashing rates and embarking into another of QE to prop up growth isn't an obvious choice if inflation is already running at a decade high.
"The choice will be difficult", she warned and indeed, a new variant forcing the world into lockdown could indeed be an ideal backdoor for inflation to make its way into the world.
Anyhow, other useful comments on the market turmoil today despite the uncertainty about the seriousness of the new variant include:
* "You shoot first and ask questions later when this sort of news erupts" - Ray Attrill, Head Of FX Strategy at NAB
* "I do not pretend to be a learned armchair virologist, but viruses do not mutate to become less effective, so assuming the worst is probably the safe option for now" - Jeffrey Halley, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA
* "This is not to be anti-vaccine, but to stress that in a 'war' against a coronavirus, both sides can and do change strategy" - Michael Every Global Strategist ay Rabobank
(Julien Ponthus)
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ANOTHER COVID-19 FRIDAY AND THAT MARCH 2020 FEELING (1015 GMT)
Last Friday was a particularly dramatic day on markets with the Austrian lockdown sending the euro, euro zone yields and banking stocks sharply lower.
Today's market angst about the new variant is much, much worse.
The gauge of volatility for European stocks has made its highest jump since February 2020 and the COVID-19 market crash as you can see below:
European banks have always been the ultimate play on the pandemic crisis and what the sector's stocks have to say today is quite ugly.
This is the worst fall of the index since September 2020 and as you can see below, falls of over 5% are clearly associated with the worst of the COVID-19 triggered market turmoil in 2020:
As noted earlier in an earlier blog post, some travel stocks were back to levels unseen since last year but in the grand scheme of things, the STOXX 600 is only about 5% away from its record high and 75% above March 2020 lows.
Whether today is just another bump on the road or the start of something uglier remains to be seen.
(Julien Ponthus)
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SOME TRAVEL STOCKS BACK TO NOVEMBER 2020 LOWS (0908 GMT)
The new virus variant sends jitters across financial markets, driving European stocks down, with pandemic sensitive stocks leading losses.
The Stoxx 600 index (.STOXX) is down 2.9%, with travel and leisure stock index (.SXTP) falling 4.6% to its September low.
Some stocks in travel companies, such as British Airways owner IAG (ICAG.L), Lufthansa (LHAG.DE), Tui , hit lows close to levels not seen since November 9 2020, when the vaccine breakthrough was announced.
The oil and gas stock index (.SXEP) is down 4.7% as crude prices plunged amid concerns about the pandemic and oil surplus.
Banks are badly hit as bond yields are falling while markets pare back expectations for the pace of potential rate hikes in the United States. The bank Stoxx index (.SX7P) is down 4.9%.
Analysts from Raymond James wonder if this may yet prove to be yet another "Covid scare", but they also recall that UK and Israeli authorities are taking the news seriously enough to ban flights from the region, effective from today.
They add risk assets were already jittery in response to rising inflationary pressures and some hawkish commentary from central banks.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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IT'S LOOKING LIKE A BLACK FRIDAY (0833 GMT)
COVID-19, a worry that investors had pushed down their list of top concerns in recent months, has soared back up to the number one spot as a new variant spreads across South Africa.
Asia stocks outside Japan slid over 2%, Europe and U.S. stock futures are down sharply, oil prices drops almost 3.5%, the safe-haven yen is up around three-quarters of a percent, and U.S. Treasury yields are down almost 10 basis points.
Thin liquidity following Thursday's U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday likely exacerbates price moves for sure, but there's little doubt overnight headlines have taken markets by surprise on Friday.
Little is known of the variant, detected in South Africa, Botswana and Hong Kong, but scientists reckon it has an unusual combination of mutations and may be able to evade immune responses or make it more transmissible. read more
The news comes as Europe already battles a resurgent COVID-19 outbreak, triggering fresh restrictions that raise uncertainty over the near-term economic outlook.
That poses a fresh challenge for central banks such as the European Central Bank, which has just started to acknowledge that a push in inflation is lasting longer than anticipated.
And on top of the latest COVID headlines, there are other reasons for unease, some warn -- the general lift up in Fed rate hike expectations, Ukraine/Russia tensions that has broader geopolitical ramifications and a property-led slowdown in China.
In emerging markets, the spotlight passes from Turkey to South Africa for now as the rand breaches the 16.00 level to the dollar for the first time this year.
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Friday:
- ECB speakers: ECB President Christine Lagarde
- BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks
- Q4 Canadian Survey on Business Conditions
- Japan PM Kishida urges companies to raise wages by 3% or more read more
- China Evergrande soccer stadium taken over by government -source read more
- China asks Didi to delist from U.S. on data security fears - Bloomberg News read more
(Dhara Ranasinghe)
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A NEW VIRUS VARIANT HITS EUROPEAN STOCKS (0721 GMT)
European stocks are set to open sharply lower as a rush to safety and a massive drop in risk assets spread across the globe on more virus concerns. Stock futures predict a more than 2% drop at opening trades. read more
South African scientists have detected a COVID-19 variant with a "very unusual constellation" of mutations, which could help it evade the body's immune response and make vaccines less effective. read more
U.S. Treasury yields drop 9 basis points, and Fed funds futures rallied as markets pare back expectations for the pace of potential rate hikes in the United States.
Meanwhile Brent crude futures fall below $80 a barrel, amid concerns about the pandemic and oil surplus.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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