EVANSVILLE, Ind. — The numbers are eye-opening, you can say that much.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington is projecting 6,247 coronavirus deaths in Indiana by Aug. 4 — a dramatic increase over the 971 deaths projected on April 22, before Gov. Eric Holcomb's order reopening Indiana’s economy.
It's a 543 percent jump — the second-largest percentage increase in the country, behind only Alabama. It represents an additional 5,276 Hoosiers expected to die.
More: Indiana reopening projected to increase COVID-19 deaths by 543%
The jarring numbers have not persuaded the Republican governor's two highest-ranking supporters in Vanderburgh County to question the wisdom of his five-phase reopening plan. Not at this point.
Evansville Mayor Lloyd Winnecke and County Commissioner Cheryl Musgrave, both Republicans, each said Holcomb's plan leaves plenty of room for reversing course if deaths start to spike.
More: Coronavirus resurgence sparks call for Vanderburgh residents to act
Holcomb's reopening plan "strikes a balance between protecting public health and reopening the economy," said Winnecke, who noted that he hasn't read the University of Washington report.
"I still believe that the Back on Track plan the governor laid out makes sense," the mayor said. "It seems like there are measures in place that if there is a significant surge anywhere in the state, that appropriate actions can be made.
"The state has those abilities. Local units of government have those capabilities. Part of the wisdom of the governor's plan is that those safeguards, those timelines, are in place. If by the end of May, we're not still making the progress that we need to make, and we're not living up to the four pillars that he outlined, then we can't go to phase three."
It all points out the necessity of residents to continue or begin social distancing, wearing masks and all the other measures that can keep a lid on coronavirus, Winnecke said.
"All of us will individually, in businesses and institutions, will decide the future — not a study of data," the mayor said.
Musgrave pointed out that coronavirus-related deaths in Indiana are occurring elsewhere — like in Marion County, which recorded 398 deaths as of Thursday afternoon, and several surrounding counties. Vanderburgh County has just two deaths, according to the Vanderburgh County Health Department.
"That's an Indiana prediction, all over Indiana," she said. "The commissioners and I are monitoring our situation really closely, and we're working to make sure that everybody stays safe.
"That's all I can do with the data I have."
Coronavirus testing numbers in flux
The Indiana State Department of Health's (ISDH) dashboard of positive COVID-19 cases said Thursday that 3,500 tests have been conducted in Vanderburgh County. But those are only the tests reported to ISDH.
The Vanderburgh County Health Department said 5,181 tests had been reported by local hospitals. And that was as of Tuesday. Health Department Administrator Joe Gries could not be reached Thursday.
The local department's numbers include tests the hospitals are sending to their own labs and to ISDH, Gries said Wednesday.
"This is about as close as we can get to know how many tests are being done in Vanderburgh County," he said.
ISDH has 11 regional strike teams that "travel to long-term care facilities to help with testing if needed and educate facilities about infection control practices and isolation," according to an email from the agency.
"ISDH nurse surveyors have visited every long-term care and freestanding facility in the state to provide guidance about how to handle COVID-19 patients in their facilities," stated the email.
But the local health department doesn't know how many tests ISDH strike teams have done in Vanderburgh County, and the state agency said it doesn't break out the data by county.
Gries said that leaves the Vanderburgh County Health Department guessing. How many of the 3,500 tests attributed to the county by ISDH's statewide dashboard were performed by local hospitals, and how many were done by ISDH itself? Some of the hospital tests reported to the local agency may also be included in ISDH's numbers, and some may not.
After all, ISDH is reporting a much smaller number of tests than the county health department — and ISDH has access to testing data that the local agency doesn't. The two don't always communicate.
"We don’t really hear about those (ISDH strike team visits), and we don’t get the numbers on that, so I just don’t have that information from that," Gries said.
"We’ve known of a couple, we’ve gotten the word from the long-term care facilities that the strike team was there, but we don’t get anything from the state when they come in or after. They don’t even tell us that they’ve been there. So it's kind of a little frustrating."
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