Odd history might repeat itself for the Gophers football team this fall.
For the second time in nine seasons, Minnesota might go to a bowl game without reaching the standard six wins.
The Gophers (5-5 overall) need one more win to reach bowl eligibility but are four-touchdown underdogs for Saturday’s Big Ten game at No. 2 Ohio State. The U will then host Wisconsin (5-5) in a projected toss-up game for Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe at Huntington Bank Stadium on Nov. 25.
Even if Minnesota loses both games, there might not be enough eligible teams to fill the 82 bowl spots this postseason, meaning the U might still get in at 5-7. That’s the fallout of 62 percent of the Division I programs making bowl games.
In 2015, Minnesota finished 5-7 and appeared in the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit because there was a dearth of 6-win teams that season. The U got in that year based on its high Academic Progress Rate (APR).
The U’s current APR is tied for eighth in the nation among FBS programs, meaning that could be the ticket that gets them bowling this December. The Gophers actually climb that APR list with a handful of teams ahead of them already qualifying for bowls (Clemson, Alabama, Mississippi, Ohio State and Air Force).
Tied for first on that list is Northwestern (5-5) and Wisconsin (5-5). Cincinnati (3-7) is also ahead of the U, but they would need to end a seven-game losing streak with two straight wins to go in ahead of the Minnesota.
So, if Wisconsin beats Nebraska, Northwestern tops Purdue and the Gophers lose to Ohio State, Minnesota would move to the top of the APR list with one week remaining.
It’s also important to note that if there aren’t enough 6-6 teams, both James Madison and Jacksonville State will earn bowl bids despite their transition from FCS; both schools have more than six wins already. Those up-and-comers would go in ahead of any 5-7 program.
Currently with two weeks left in the season, 60 teams are bowl eligible and 21 teams sit on five wins, meaning a lot still has to be settled on the field. There’s also the possibility that a few current four-win teams could win a pair of games and get into the bowl field with six victories.
Before the 49-30 loss to Purdue last Saturday, the Gophers were projected to go bowling in all 11 forecasts tracked by the Pioneer Press.
After that blowout, five projections dropped the Gophers from their entire bowl lineup. The other six still had a wide range of destinations, including a return to the Quick Lane Bowl.
Pulling up the rear
Five-win FBS teams with two weeks remaining in the regular season:
Big Ten: Gophers, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Illinois
Atlantic Coast: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Syracuse
American: South Florida
Big XII: Texas Tech, Brigham Young, Central Florida
Mid-American: Central Michigan
Mountain West: Boise State, San Jose State, Utah State
Southeastern: Florida
Sun Belt: Marshall, South Alabama, Arkansas State, Louisiana
USA: Western Kentucky
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November 15, 2023 at 10:44PM
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Gophers football can still finish 5-7 and go to bowl game this season - St. Paul Pioneer Press
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