About 32,000 more people left San Francisco than migrated to the city from 2020 to 2021, according to newly released tax return data from the IRS. That’s slightly less than the 39,000 more who left than came to the city from 2019 to 2020.
Those who left accounted for a hefty sum of income; the income of departing residents in 2020 was almost $8 billion more than the total reported by arrivals. Combined with the net $6.9 billion in loss in reported wages for those who left San Francisco the prior year, people who exited the city in 2020 and 2021 made about $15 billion more than those who arrived.
The difference in earnings reflected the departure of many wealthier residents during the early years of the pandemic. The 148,000 residents who left San Francisco by the time they filed tax returns in 2020 and 2021 collectively made about $22.7 billion, for an average annual income of about $153,000.
That’s a higher average than the people who moved to San Francisco during that period. Those roughly 77,000 residents were parts of households that made about $7.9 billion, or an average of $103,000 a person.
The IRS tracks migration by checking to see if a tax filer puts a different address on their form than they did the previous year, then measuring the number and income of those who changed counties. The agency’s count of individuals includes members of households who may not have income, such as dependent children.
The average income for filing households who remained in San Francisco from 2019-20 or 2020-21 was just $117,000, according to the IRS.
Ted Egan, San Francisco’s chief economist, said the city’s declining population in the early years of the pandemic contributed to its struggling tax revenues, and likely some of its labor shortage. But losing high-income workers wouldn’t directly affect the city’s finances, as San Francisco doesn’t have a personal income tax.
Egan also said that a high average income among people moving away doesn’t necessarily mean most of those migrants are wealthy. It could be that the higher average incomes of residents that left the city is driven by a small number of very high earners. Data on individuals is not provided by the IRS, so it is not possible to test this assertion.
Still, data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that the San Francisco metro area’s median household income fell between 2019 and 2021.
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In most Bay Area counties, the total earnings of departing residents exceeded that of new residents. But for a few, the arrivals had high enough incomes to make up the difference.
Sonoma County lost a little more than 3,000 filers between 2019 and 2021, but new residents brought incomes totaling $505 million more than the residents who left. This appears due to an influx of people with generally higher incomes: while the average earnings for arrivals was $75,000, those who moved from the county made an average of just $54,000.
Reach Christian Leonard: Christian.Leonard@hearst.com
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