Could the Texans, Vikings, Eagles, Falcons, or Lions turn things around at 0–2 and still make this year’s playoffs?
JUST 12% OF NFL TEAMS THAT START 0–2 REBOUND TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. That’s only one in every eight. It’s certainly not great, but it’s also a heck of a lot better than 0%. Fans tend to think of 0–2 teams as dead on arrival, but at 12%, history says at least one such squad will flip the script and make the playoffs, like they do every other year.
In 2014, Indianapolis and Carolina did it. The next season it was Seattle and Houston, and the year after, Miami. In 2017, the Saints rebounded from 0–2 to become a Super Bowl favorite (even if I picked the eventual 0–16 Browns to make the playoffs instead). The next year, both the Texans and Seahawks started 0–2 and made the playoffs anyway, as I predicted. Last year was the first in six seasons where no 0–2 team rebounded to make it, but that still leaves eight success stories in six years.
This year could have been so easy. The Dallas Cowboys were my NFC Super Bowl pick but a disastrous set of fumbles and fake punts had them on the brink of 0–2. I absolutely would have picked 0–2 Dallas to make the playoffs. Instead, they’re 1–1 and the Atlanta Falcons enter our field instead, along with a whopping 10 other teams, over one-third of the league. If you really think 11 teams are already out after two weeks, that leaves 21 teams for 14 playoff spots, and that just seems way too soon.
Let’s look at our 11 teams at 0–2 and imagine a best case scenario. Does the schedule soften up going forward? Is there a key player who could turn things around? Did early injuries or bad luck make the 0–2 team look worse than they are? Is there any easy path to a division title? After all, making the playoffs after an 0–2 start is not about what is but about what could be…
TIER IV — NOT EVEN A SNOWBALL’S CHANCE
11. Carolina Panthers
This season was always about the future for Carolina, but that’s even truer now that Christian McCaffrey is sidelined with injury. CMC touched the ball on almost half of Panthers plays a year ago, and Matt Rhule built this entire spread offense around him. The team has no defense, and they have every incentive to tank to get a quarterback that actually fits. Big nope.
10. New York Jets
The Jets season is already DOA two weeks in. Adam Gase is the lamest of ducks and if you can play running back or receiver, check your voicemail cuz you might be starting for New York this Sunday. The Jets have a pretty rough schedule early and apparently no longer even play in an easy division. Maybe they can hope for a coaching change spark and a Sam Darnold leap, but I’m done putting any hope in the Jets.
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Early signs look good for Joe Burrow. He’s shown poise and leadership and been very good down the stretch. But rookie quarterbacks don’t suddenly go 9–5 without an offensive line or any defense of note, especially not in the toughest division in football. Remember, Burrow still has to play Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice each. Even if he steals one of those, that means going 8–2 in the other games just to get to nine wins. Not happening.
TIER III — MAYBE IF YOU SQUINT
8. Denver Broncos
The Broncos are staring down the barrel of a season from hell. Von Miller and Courtland Sutton are out for the season — that’s arguably the best player on both sides of the ball. Drew Lock is out awhile, leaving Jeff Driskel the clear worst starting QB in the league for a next month of games against Tampa, New England, and Kansas City.
The Broncos would rank even lower if not for how well their defense has played so far, but this offense just has no shot to keep up unless Denver somehow sweeps Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
7. New York Giants
I tried to talk myself into the Giants. Their two losses are two 2–0 Steelers and Bears teams who might just be good, and the Giants have hung pretty tough. There’s some Ewing theory potential with Saquon Barkley out, and maybe Daniel Jones can make a leap without him for a new coach that finds his footing in the worst division in football. They luck into a beat up 49ers team this Sunday and play the struggling Cowboys in two weeks.
That’s the case for New York. The case against is reality. The Giants aren’t good at any position with Saquon out. Soft schedule or not, you still have to win games.
6. Miami Dolphins
Miami still gets two games against the Jets, and it looks like they’ll luck into easier than expected games against the 49ers and Broncos over the next month as they deal with major injuries. Miami is well coached and fights hard, and they still get to play the Jets twice.
The big X-factor is Tua Tagovailoa. How soon until he’s ready, and could he be the switch that changes this team’s fortunes? I might’ve talked myself into Miami if Buffalo and New England looked bad, but as strong as those two have started — both against Miami — it feels like a long shot.
TIER II — MAYBE IF THEY GET HEALTHY?
5. Detroit Lions
The bad news is that Detroit is already 0–2 in the division, and they’ll probably be a touchdown underdog the next two weeks against Arizona and New Orleans. But the Lions are better than they’ve looked so far. They need to get their corners healthy quickly and need Kenny Golladay on offense.
And most importantly, they need Matthew Stafford to look like the sleeper MVP candidate he was supposed to be. Detroit still plays six games against teams on this list plus Washington, Chicago, and a home Thanksgiving game. There’s a path here. But there’s also Matt Patricia, so.
4. Minnesota Vikings
It’s looking ugly for Minnesota. They got thrashed by Green Bay and Indianapolis, and it doesn’t get much easier with Tennessee, Houston, and Seattle up next. Minnesota’s first 10 games all look losable, and they face Tom Brady and Drew Brees after that too.
The hope for Minnesota is that Green Bay and Indy are great, making those losses not quite as bad, and that the Vikings defense gets healthy and gels in a hurry. Minnesota’s best player, Danielle Hunter, could return in a week, and the young secondary will be better as the season goes on.
On paper, the Vikings are the most talented 0–2 team. If you reset the season and let these 11 teams play a round robin, I’d pick Minnesota. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way. This D can’t rush the passer or defend receivers and is about to face Tannehill, Watson, Wilson, Ryan, Rodgers, and Stafford. Minnesota is too talented to keep getting blown out, but the playoffs are a distant dream unless the defense finds itself in a hurry.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles offensive line is in shambles. They’ve lost two starters for the season and lost a third indefinitely Sunday. A fourth starter missed Week 1, and a fifth tried to retire last spring. With no protection, Carson Wentz has been miserable the first two weeks, holding the ball too long and trying to do too much.
If the line can get healthy, everything changes. Miles Sanders is back, and Alshon Jeffery should join him soon. Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert are excellent at tight end. The Eagles still have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball along with a very strong coaching staff.
The Eagles get Cincinnati this week, then luck into San Francisco while the Niners are somehow more banged up than Philly. But then it’s games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and later the Eagles have a consecutive stretch against the Seahawks, Packers, Saints, Cardinals, and Cowboys. Woof. LA and Washington were opponents they needed to beat.
The only real angle here is the division. Washington and New York look terrible, and Dallas was a miracle away from 0–2. If you think the Cowboys are bad, maybe the Eagles go 5–1 in the division and eke into the playoffs at 8–8. Unfortunately, I still think Dallas is good, clearly better than Philly.
The Eagles need to get healthy and they need to start surprising folks. Philly will be a clear underdog in at least six remaining games, maybe as many as 10. That’s never stopped Doug Pederson before, but he better start soon.
TIER I — THE ONLY REALISTIC OPTIONS
2. Houston Texans
The Texas are the easy choice. Houston already rebounded twice from 0–2 in the last five years to make the playoffs, and the Texans have maybe the least bad 0–2 record in history with losses to the Ravens and Chiefs. We’ve learned very little about Houston so far except that it’s hard to start the season against the best two teams in the NFL.
The Texans have the best QB on the list in Deshaun Watson and the best defensive player in J.J. Watt. As long as those two stay healthy, Houston has a shot. Bill O’Brien is a bad GM but a good coach. The Texans control their destiny since they still face division foes Indianapolis and Tennessee twice, plus Cleveland, a potential wildcard contender. Houston has a great recent history against the division and might have the best QB in every remaining game except Green Bay. The Texans were always likely to start 0–2. The opportunity hasn’t gone anywhere.
Unfortunately, the schedule doesn’t get much easier. My Super Bowl pick, the Steelers, are up next. Tennessee and Green Bay are in the next month. Two Jaguars games look trickier now. Houston has enough superstar talent to win any game, but they can also lose any game, and their stars remain very injury prone. Houston is what they always are — upside and downside all in one.
There’s one better pick.
1. Atlanta Falcons
This is not the team I expected to choose. I wouldn’t have even expected the Falcons to make top three. As disastrous as the loss to Dallas was, many have rightfully called for a new Falcons coach and already buried the Dirty Birds.
But Atlanta is a miracle away from being 1–1, tied atop the NFC South. What looked like a difficult division may have some cracks. Drew Brees and Tom Brady are 84 years old combined and look the part so far, and older QBs get worse as the season goes on. If Tampa and New Orleans are more beatable, then the division is more open and Atlanta’s schedule is much easier.
The Falcons have been good so far — on one side of the ball. The offense scored 39 this week and dropped multiple deep passes that should have been touchdowns. In Week 1, Atlanta ran up 506 yards of offense on Seattle. They just also went 0-for-4 on fourth down and had a fumble and an interception, effectively six turnovers. Matt Ryan is on pace for 5,784 yards, Calvin Ridley looks like a breakout star, and Julio Jones is still one of the in the game. The offense looks great. The defense remains the problem.
You know how we can’t fault the Texans for their 0–2 start? I’m not sure going 0–2 against Seattle and Dallas is so much worse. That would be my NFC Championship Game pick today. Atlanta’s schedule gets much easier from here. The Falcons are favored against an overrated 2–0 Bears team this week, then it’s the Packers before five straight against this 0–2 list, including two Panthers games without McCaffrey. Atlanta could be 6–3 into the bye.
The key is still New Orleans and Tampa, and Atlanta will face both twice the back half of the season. They’ll need to win a few of those games and hope those teams are not as strong as expected — that the old QBs look old, and that Matt Ryan is the best QB in the division. He has been so far.
Atlanta’s defense won’t magically heal overnight. The Falcons will need Ryan, Julio, and Ridley to win shootouts. Atlanta’s 64 points through two weeks are enough — it’s the 78 they’ve allowed that’s the problem. The Falcons need their secondary to be bad instead of awful, and they need Keanu Neal, Damontae Kazee, and Deion Jones to make some defensive plays.
The Falcons can’t undo the Cowboys disaster, but they can move on from it. If they right the ship soon, they might still even make the playoffs. ■
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