There's an inkling that the stimulus bill could still be salvaged.
Sarah Tew/CNETCan there still be another coronavirus relief bill even with President Donald Trump's four new executive orders? There's every reason to believe they can coexist. Part of that is because the directives signed by Trump cover some, but not all, of the issues White House and Democratic negotiators had hoped to include in another stimulus package.
Despite both sides signaling a willingness to seek common ground, the two sides have yet to meet formally this week. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Republicans were willing to "put more money on the table," which is an enormous departure from last week's message that they wouldn't budge past the $1 trillion amount set forward in the proposed HEALS Act.
"If we can get a fair deal, we're willing to do it this week," Mnuchin said.
Democrats maintain their position that they've been proposing a fair deal, only to be met with uncompromising Republicans. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Monday said that Republicans don't see the people's needs the same as Democrats.
"They didn't see the depth and breadth of this crisis," Schumer said of last week's talks. "So, like in any normal negotiation, we offered to move in their direction if they would move in ours. Let's meet in the middle, we said. In the middle. That's how negotiations occur, that's how you get something done. The White House said no."
So what now? Even though both sides have expressed interest in rekindling talks, no formal action has been scheduled as of Tuesday. Here's what we know today. This story updates frequently as the news develops.
Scenario 1: A stimulus bill agreement happens this week or next
Though no formal meetings have been scheduled, talks could resume this week and lead to an agreement between the parties. Though unlikely, if an agreement is reached within the next two days, it's possible a bill could become law late this week or early next week.
Both chambers must vote before the legislation lands on the president's desk for his signature. If it follows the timeline for the CARES Act, which was passed in March, a new bill could become law within three days from the Senate vote.
Democratic Minority Whip Dick Durbin reiterated on Sunday that Democrats are willing to meet the White House and Republicans halfway.
The House of Representatives and White House negotiators tackling the details of the stimulus proposal have signaled a willingness to continue talks -- as long as both sides give some ground. (More below for what the sticking points are.)
When could the stimulus bill pass?
| House votes | Senate votes | President signs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timeline no. 1: Legislation passes this week or next |
Aug. 12 | Aug. 13 | Aug. 14 |
| Aug. 13 | Aug. 14 | Aug. 17 | |
| Aug. 14 | Aug. 17 | Aug. 18 | |
| Aug. 17 | Aug. 18 | Aug. 19 |
Scenario 2: Trump's executive orders don't stick
Following the advice of his advisers, Trump signed one executive order and three memoranda to spur action on eviction relief, extending the enhanced federal unemployment benefits, providing student loan relief and creating a payroll tax cut. The latter has been an agenda item favored by Trump for the stimulus bill, but was dropped by the Senate and his negotiators.
The executive orders have bypassed the stalled negotiation between the Democratic-led House and the administration, but detractors have cast doubt whether the president's actions will effectively help people. There are also questions as to Trump's ability to legally make certain decisions that constitutionally require an act of Congress.
California Governor Gavin Newsom expressed concern over the executive order on unemployment Monday. Newsom said that massive budget cuts would be needed to implement Trump's plan of states kicking in a quarter of the payments. Newsom estimated that matching 25% for unemployment benefits would cost California around $700 million per week.
"It would create a burden the likes which even a state as large as California could never absorb without, again, massive cuts to important services," Newsom said during a press conference.
If Trump's actions do end up in court, that could also pave the way for renewed talks by both parties. It's also possible that if a deal is reached in the coming weeks, the executive orders could be found null and void.
Scenario 3: Talks stop, no completion of the executive order
Another option, which could devastate millions of Americans, is that there is no deal at all. This could happen if both sides can't reach a compromise on the main sticking points in the bill and if Trump's executive actions don't progress. The bill could also die if, after a deal is reached, the Republican-led Senate votes it down after a Democratic-led House vote.
The end of all talks will be devastating to millions of Americans.
Sarah Tew/CNETWhat's been holding up the stimulus deal?
The Senate, House of Representatives and White House all agree that a second stimulus check that will send payments directly to Americans is essential to help turn the current recession around.
The biggest issue appears to be the cost of the overall stimulus package. The Senate's HEALS Act would cost $1 trillion, while the House Democrats stipulated $3 trillion total in its Heroes Act proposal from May. (The CARES Act, which delivered $1,200 stimulus checks to Americans earlier this year, was worth $2.2 trillion.)
Pelosi reiterated on Sunday that Democrats could come down a trillion on their plan, if Republicans raised their number a trillion-- effectively meeting in the middle at around $2 trillion.
"We're not stuck at the $1 trillion," Mnuchin said on Monday, "but we're not going to go unlimited amounts of money to do things that don't make sense."
Democrats and Republicans have been disagreeing on how much relief aid should be included in the stimulus package.
Sarah Tew/CNETWhat else could delay the stimulus package?
After the House votes, the Senate might disagree with certain parts of the bill. If that happens, the Senate can send the bill back to the House with changes, and ask Pelosi and the House to agree with those changes. If either the House and the Senate disagree with some portion of a bill, they can call for further negotiations to get to a final version.
Once the Senate secures a full vote and passes the bill, the legislation moves to the president's desk. In the typical lawmaking process, the president has 10 days to sign or veto the bill. It's unlikely Trump will wait to sign the bill once it reaches him, since he signed the CARES Act about a day after the Senate passed it.
There could also be further delays if Trump moves to repurpose unspent federal dollars for unemployment and it's challenged legally.
For more information, we've looked at how soon you might get your second stimulus check and compared the HEALS, CARES and Heroes stimulus proposals.
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