Higher education is facing its greatest challenges in at least a century. The pandemic that forced campuses to quickly shutter in the spring shows no signs of slowing in the United States. Families and students who pay tuition are living through the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Layered onto the public-health and economic crises are continuing protests against racial injustice that are certain to take place on campuses, or virtually, during the coming academic year.
But college presidents say they feel cautiously optimistic about the short-term future of their institutions, according to a new survey of campus leaders by the Association of American Colleges & Universities, the AAC&U, which promotes a liberal-arts education in academe. “Four months into the still-ongoing crisis, there are indications that presidents may not be forecasting ‘worst case’ scenarios for their institutions,” says a summary of the survey’s findings.
The survey, conducted from June 25 to July 12, found that, compared with a similar survey in March, the share of presidents who anticipate making no cuts in academic programs has increased from 50 percent to 55 percent.
But college leaders also recognize they are not out of the woods yet. A majority of those who responded to the survey still expect to cut expenses. Nearly 90 percent of the respondents said they planned to reduce their staffs and almost two-thirds said they anticipated across-the-board cuts. Those moves, the survey found, signal that presidents are trying to protect the educational mission of the institution in ways that “will not be viewed as having a direct impact on students.”
In the March survey, 30 percent of presidents predicted revenue declines of more than 15 percent. That share dropped by two-thirds, to just 10 percent, in the new survey, which drew responses from 119 college presidents, more than half of them at private institutions, most of which enroll fewer than 5,000 students. Public-college presidents made up 38 percent of the respondents, and presidents of community colleges accounted for 7 percent.
“I wouldn’t doubt that our current experience is, in many cases, less worrisome than it had been when the pandemic first hit,” said William J. Craft, president of Concordia College, a small, private institution in Moorhead, Minn.
Fall deposits at Concordia are down about 10 percent from the college’s enrollment goal, which isn’t good, Craft said, but only 1 percent less than last year’s numbers. “We’re not happy, of course, that we’re down, but pleased with the way students and families have responded,” he said.
The question for some who have considered the survey’s findings is whether presidents are being realistic in their predictions or are simply not recognizing the depth of the challenges they face.
“My takeaway is that the presidents are underestimating how bad this is going to be,” said Paul N. Friga, a clinical associate professor of strategy and entrepreneurship at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
‘A Sense of Adaptability’
Friga, a co-founder of the consulting group ABC Insights and a frequent contributor to The Chronicle, said college leaders may be basing their projections on solid summer enrollments and an encouraging number of students who made deposits to colleges for the fall. Friga’s comany partnered with AAC&U in conducting the survey.
ADVERTISEMENT
But those students decided to enroll at a time when most were expecting campuses to open in the fall. But colleges are increasingly indicating that courses will be delivered remotely in the coming semester.
As a result, more students may change their minds before classes start. Colleges that open their campuses this fall but then have to shut down will lose revenue from a variety of sources, just as they did in the spring.
The survey showed a high percentage of presidents “who thought they would start and finish the semester on campus,” Friga said. “ I hope they already know they’re going to have to shut it down.”
Ronald A. Crutcher, president of the University of Richmond, said he was still optimistic the fall semester would be in person because of investments by the university to keep students safe.
For example, new ultraviolet lights to kill airborne virus particles have been installed in all buildings that hold classes, he said, and temporary buildings have been set up for those who need to quarantine on campus.
Fall enrollments at Richmond are about the same as they were a year ago, Crutcher said, but the campus budgeted for a 10-percent decline. If public-health conditions force the campus to shut down, he said, there is also a plan for that, but it “won’t be pretty.”
Lynn Pasquerella, president of the AAC&U, said it’s not necessarily denial that is driving the presidents’ relative optimism, but flexibility.
“What I’m seeing is that presidents are engaging in a wide range of contingency planning, and some of the plans they are enacting for the fall might not be possible,” she said. “Some might say they’re being unrealistic, but behind that is a sense of adaptability.”
The initial predictions about major declines in enrollment for the summer and fall did not materialize, Pasquerella said, “so there’s no sense in panicking over what might not come to be.”
Still, colleges are planning for tough times ahead. “We still are in a very volatile climate,” said Alex Johnson, president of Cuyahoga Community College, which enrolls about 55,000 students at four campuses around Cleveland.
So far, Tri-C, as the college is called, has cut about 8 percent of its operating budget of $10 million, reduced its staff by 277 people through layoffs or voluntary separations, and postponed negotiations with unions that represent campus workers, Johnson said. He has taken a 10-percent pay cut.
“We have to think about the best-case scenario,” he said, “but also take the steps to remain solvent, including laying off colleagues, which we don’t want to do.”
"still" - Google News
August 03, 2020 at 11:05AM
https://ift.tt/2BWcINo
Presidents Say Fall Semester Might Not Be So Bad. They Still Plan Cuts, Just in Case. - The Chronicle of Higher Education
"still" - Google News
https://ift.tt/35pEmfO
https://ift.tt/2YsogAP
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Presidents Say Fall Semester Might Not Be So Bad. They Still Plan Cuts, Just in Case. - The Chronicle of Higher Education"
Post a Comment