Pasadena’s new coronavirus cases increased predictably this week as local health officials say the state’s reporting system is now fixed. Still, they worry the latest figures may still be impacted by the statewide undercounts that plagued the city’s data for the past two weeks.
On average, the city reported about 20 new cases a day during a seven-day period this week, measuring from Friday, Aug. 7 to Thursday, Aug. 13.
That’s an increase compared to both of the previous seven day periods, which respectively saw about 11 and 19 cases each day on average; both weeks were impacted by the state’s reporting issues.
Three weeks ago, before the state’s problems took hold, the city was reporting about 29 cases each day on average measuring from Friday, July 17 to Thursday, July 23.
While cases do appear to be falling now — as indicated not just by the new case rates, but also hospitalization data alongside declining death and positivity rates — if this week’s numbers are accurate, the city is still reporting more new cases on average than it did throughout March, April, May and the first half of June.
Since this newsgroup last reported on the city’s coronavirus landscape on Friday, Aug. 7, the city has reported 118 new cases.
- 27 new cases on Saturday, Aug. 8;
- 35 new cases on Sunday, Aug. 9;
- 15 new cases on Monday, Aug. 10;
- 6 new cases on Tuesday, Aug. 11;
- 13 new cases on Wednesday, Aug. 12; and
- 32 new cases on Thursday, Aug. 13.
The city’s epidemiologist, Dr. Matthew Feaster, attributed the case spike on Thursday to a backlog related to the state reporting errors, “though the majority of the cases still had a recent test date,” he wrote in an email.
In an interview earlier this week, he said some cases reported on Saturday and Sunday were also part of the backlog.
“That said, we remain optimistic that the systemic issue with the lab reporting did not have serious detrimental effects on our ability to investigate (new cases) in Pasadena,” he said.
Still, when asked if the relatively low number of new cases through the middle of the week represented an undercount, Feaster said, “We cannot (say) with any certainty.”
Optimistic indicators
Unlike the city’s new case reporting, its system to track new deaths wasn’t impacted by the state issues. And right now, Pasadena is on an eight-day streak without a single reported death. That matches a record set in early June when the city’s cases were at the lowest point since the pandemic began.
Additionally, hospital data wasn’t impacted by the state’s reporting problems, and data from Huntington Hospital — a barometer for local health officials — shows things are on the upswing there, too.
At the start of last week, the hospital was counting 50 patients in its dedicated coronavirus unit. This week, they’ve tallied between 34 and 38 patients, depending on the day. It hasn’t seen those numbers since mid-June, but it’s still about double what the hospital reported in early June.
Hospital data shows a commensurate decline in the hospital’s positivity rate — the percentage of patients who test positive for the virus, which health officials use as an indicator of the virus’ prevalence. State and local officials have said they’d like to see that number below the 10% mark.
As of Thursday, Aug. 13, Huntington Hospital’s positivity rate sits at 11.03%, analysis shows. That’s down from 11.43% from last Thursday but it’s still quite a bit more than the 10.5% seen in mid-June, just before cases began to spike.
The new cases
Out of the 118 new cases counted since this newsgroup last reported on the city’s coronavirus situation, the vast majority held to trends noted in recent weeks: More than half of all new cases involved patients under the age of 40 and Latino/Latinx residents.
Here’s how the 118 new cases breakdown by age:
- 13 involved patients under the age of 18;
- 56 involved patients between the ages of 18 and 40;
- 35 involved patients between the ages of 41 and 64; and
- 14 involved patients over the age of 65.
And by race:
- 10 involved white patients;
- 68 involved Latino/Latinx patients;
- 10 involved Black patients;
- 4 involved Asian or Pacific Islander patients;
- 1 involved a patient of another race; and
- 25 are under investigation, adding to a backlog that now sits at 461 cases.
Health officials have repeatedly indicated that the cases are spreading because more residents are hanging out with people who don’t live under the same roof, including family members.
They have repeatedly urged residents to only spend time with people they live with.
In the past, health officials have said Latino residents were more likely to get infected with the virus, not because of biology, but social dynamics: Latino residents tend to work frontline jobs in fields like healthcare and restaurant work. Additionally, they tend to live in closer proximity to one another in tighter family units.
The total number of cases involving this demographic have tripled since mid-June, when new cases began to spike again. The exact same thing could be said for the under-40 demographic over the same time period.
Health officials are urging residents to continue social distancing, avoid gatherings and continue to wear masks or face coverings.
“I know we say that every time, and it’s probably annoying the public at this point, but it really does work,” Feaster said last week. “It really will stop the virus.”
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